Why Urbanization

Urbanization is a phenomenon closely tied to rising wealth. As societies become
wealthier, generally speaking, the proportion of their populations living and working in cities rises. This shift to cities is most pronounced – and often transformational – in emerging countries.

Urbanization is self-reinforcing. Cities are an engine of economic prosperity attracting rural workers seeking opportunity. Cities offer greater economies of scale, more complex market structures, and the diverse exchange of ideas. Cities often grow despite a chronic lack of urban planning or investment.

Urbanization is global. Cities – and mostly emerging market cities – account for more than all projected population growth, offsetting projected declines in the global rural population. Of the 50 largest megacities expected by 2035, 44 are located in emerging markets. (See graph.)

Urbanization Applied

Urbanization captures a deep pool of emerging market equities. There are over a thousand actively traded real estate stocks, alone, comprising over a trillion dollars of market capitalization and five billion in daily trade liquidity across over forty emerging market exchanges.

The study of cities, theoretically and specifically, can be a powerful investment edge. We find that, especially in emerging cities with high levels of new infrastructure investment, these fundamentals can be powerfully predictive of where productivity and prosperity are likely to increase, and where, in turn, the value of scarce assets that make up the place is likely to appreciate.

If the potential profitability of any investment edge is a function of 1) Its explanatory power that gives one a decision-making advantage 2) Its novelty or otherwise lack of widespread adoption, hence the existence of a market inefficiency not arbitraged away, and 3) Its applicability for deploying a large amount of capital, urbanization has all three.

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